DAB and Civic Party claim top spots while localists may take four seats, HKU pollister shows

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DAB from pro-Beijing camp, Civic Party from pan-democracy camp and localists are in the limelight of the latest Legco election poll.

Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) and Civic Party may win the day in the upcoming Legco election in September, which has been described as the most competitive race since 1997. Meanwhile, localists who have drew much attention in recent years may grab four seats.

Dominating DAB, Civic Party the second

A recent poll suggests that both DAB and Civic Party will secure at least one seat each in the five geographical constituencies (GCs). DAB may even take two in New Territories West (NTW) and New Territories East (NTE) each. Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu (楊岳橋)-led Civic Party list (if two or more candidates are included) in NTE may benefit from the largest remainder method adopted in the election which two  seats may be allocated.

For the Legco District Council (Second) functional constituency (FC), more commonly known as ‘superseats’, the two DAB lists, led by Starry Lee Wai-king (李慧琼) and Holden Chow Ho-ding (周浩鼎), may win it all. Sumly Chan Yuen-sum (陳琬琛) of Civic Party ranks fifth, edging over the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (HKFTU) candidate.

Summing up, DAB may win nine seats in this election to retain its status as the top dog in Legco, while Civic Party may secure seven.

The poll, conducted by The Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP), interviewed over 5000 Cantonese-speaking people who are 18-year-old or above through landlines from 20 June to 8 July. The next HKUPOP Legco election poll result is expected to be released on the day before the election on 3 September.

New People’s Party’s Chairperson Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (葉劉淑儀) may also benefit from the largest remainder method by grabbing two seats for her list (if two or more candidates are included).

Localists ‘four’ you

Against many odds, “mad dog” Raymond Wong Yuk-man (黃毓民) of Proletariat Political Institute, Edward Leung Tin-kei (梁天琦) of Hong Kong Indigenous, Yau Wai-ching (游蕙禎) and Kenny Wong Chun-kit (黃俊傑) of Youngspiration are the four localists over the marginal lines. Leung’s votes are likely to top all localist candidates.

The Proletariat Political Institute-Civic Passion-Hong Kong Resurgence Order electoral alliance is likely to run in all five GCs, but the poll shows that only “mad dog” have the chance to win in Kowloon West (KLW). Horace Chin Wan-kan (陳雲根), aka Chin Wan, falls far behind the marginal ninth in NTE. Convenor of pro-independence Hong Kong National Party Andy Chan Ho-tin (陳浩天) and Demosistō’s likely sole candidate Nathan Law Kwun-chung (羅冠聰) are unlikely to win a seat either.

Among the 35 GC seats and five “superseats” being polled this time, both pan-democracy and pro-Beijing camp can take 18 seats each, and the remaining four go to localists.

Democratic Party in danger

Democratic Party may lose its status as the biggest pan-democratic party in the Legco to Civic Party. Andrew Wan Siu-kin (尹兆堅) from NTW and Lam Cheuk-ting (林卓廷) from NTE are falling behind the marginal line, whereas Ted Hui Chi-fung (許智峯) may also be out if Regina Ip’s list confirms to take two.

The party may also lose one of its two “superseats” too. While the veteran James To Kun-sun (涂謹申) may be re-elected again, Roy Kwong Chun-yu (鄺俊宇), the party’s district councillor in Yuen Long District Council, is falling 0.9% behind the marginal fifth.

In contrast, the League of Social Democrats (LSD), led by “long hair” Leung Kwok-hung (梁國雄), may win an extra seat in NTW on top of Leung’s representation in the NTE GC. However, LSD’s electoral ally People Power, which holds two seats currently, is on its way of losing both of them.

It’s not done yet

The poll did not cover the latest developments as Baggio Leung Chung-hang (梁頌恆) of Youngspiration and Oscar Lai Man-lok (黎汶洛) of Demosistō have dicided to drop out from the race. Pro-democracy independent Andrew Cheng Ka-fu (鄭家富) has also announced to his candidacy in NTE.

Accuracy of the results might also be undermined as the HKUPOP in most cases collected its data through landlines.