Timothy Peirson-Smith shares his quick thoughts on the American election results and raises caution on an upcoming ‘Trexit’.
Photo credit: Gage Skidmore
Like so many of the American electorate, I do not support Trump. Nor Hillary. I am (Little) British and, thus, cannot vote in the USA.
However, I did call a Trump victory, after spending time in Washington DC, in late June 2016 and predicting the likelihood of covert Trump voters ashamed of polling for Trump who obviously voted!
So, the opinion polls were again hopelessly wrong. We knew that from Brexit. USA learnt nothing from Brexit; immigration was arguably a key issue in both Brexit and the Trump victory: The Trexit.
Women, African American and Latino voters disliked or distrusted Secretary Clinton, her husband and the 44th President even more so than Trump. That is shocking.
Most pundits predicted the Republican Party would be destroyed by the time polls closed on the West Coast. These pundits too were wildly wrong. The Democratic Party is in now shambles. The Republican Party now controls all three levers of USA’s government, which has not happened since 2005.
The Trump win is no less than a revolution in political science and a remarkable achievement even though the campaign was acutely toxic on both sides. Secretary Clinton was advised by Michelle Obama to “go high” when toxic Trump “went low”. Secretary Clinton said she would never go low but her advertising campaign belied this purported philosophy.
Now the USA must heal themselves and Trump, the 45th President, must start to form his cabinet, assemble a solid and informed and, hopefully broad church, of advisers, and deal with an unprecedented class action against the President Elect on 28 November.
The implications of Trexit to Asia, Hong Kong and China, let alone to the rest of the World, its order and economies will make for interesting and extraordinary times.
[starbox desc=”Timothy J Peirson-Smith
Timothy Peirson-Smith is the founder of Executive Counsel and an astute observer of the Hong Kong political scene and chairman of the Business Policy Unit of The British Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.